Bullish Noises For Bullish Noises' Sake

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Tony Angel blog bejegyzése az NING-en: http://fmclub.ning.com/forum/topics/bul ... or-bullish

Itt az eredeti szöveg a recesszióról és létesítménygazdálkodási iparról:

"Another post from The Edifice Blog. Once again, please feel free to comment, either here or on the blog itself.

I’ve written before about the “credit-crunch come recession” (have a read of Recession and the P-Word if you haven’t already done so). Whilst I know I'm not alone in doing so, I do sometimes wonder if I am alone in publicly acknowledging the effect that this economic downturn is having (or is likely to have) on our industry. The reason I say that as that (at least until this week) pretty much all I've seen in the media is a series of press releases from service providers talking up the market. Advising us that, actually, a global recession is uniquely good for the FM industry.

Strangely, this week seems to be one for telling it like it is. Firstly, i-FM reports that the cleaning sector is feeling the pinch; recent growth figures have hit 14% per annum but this is expected to slow to 2% for the current year (and next year?). This tells us nothing of the effect on margin, of course, but we all know that higher turnover doesn't necessarily mean that profits aren't eroded.

Then there's FM World, which also seems to be reflecting the true state of the market now. On the subject of projects and capital spend, we find that "Interior Services Group has reported that many of its corporate clients have delayed or cancelled projects due to start in quarter four of 2008 or next year." No surprise there, and I doubt that it isn't a picture reflected in many, if not all, of that sector's order books. More worryingly perhaps, a report earlier in the week shed some light on what's really happening so far as a response to the present economic climate is concerned: "Businesses across the service sector have reduced investment and spend in their buildings and predict that this will decline even further over the coming months resulting in a spate of job losses across the FM sector. That was the gloomy message from the CBI’s quarterly Service Sector Survey..."

"In the three months to November, firms reported steep falls in business volumes and profitability, as well as plans to scale back employment and investment. Firms selling services to businesses saw the volume and value of their business, profitability and numbers employed fall at record rates - the steepest declines since the survey began in 1998. Companies are also cutting investment plans sharply as worries about future demand intensified."

Now there's nothing wrong with being seen to adopt a positive stance in the face of adversity, but that's not the same as making bullish noises for bullish noises' sake. The FM sector, like all other sectors, is being hit hard and the position is unlikely to change as we head into a New year that might well see a number of established players do well to last the course.

To my mind, I do believe that opportunity exists out there, but I would add a large dose of realism to what I've seen written by others. For client organisations, it's time to go back to basics with a review of FM strategy, a reconsideration of business need both in terms of services and service levels, and - out of that - an appraisal of supply options. From my own experience, this process usually becomes part of a "contract life-cycle" but there's no reason why special circumstances shouldn't result in a different approach and a different timetable. For service providers, it's absolutely imperative not only to be proactive, but also to be innovative. Doing nothing will simply result in margins being eroded or - worse still - contracts being lost as clients align themselves with those organisations demonstrating a commitment to delivering better value. That's "better value", not "lower cost", and the two things are not necessarily the same (although I accept, of course, that they often go hand in hand).

One thing I don't see for 2009, however, is a year of business as usual. Those who pretend that it will be are likely to be the first casualties of the media hype I referred to earlier."